LONDON / ConSynSer / – On October 21, oil prices experienced an upward trend, with Brent crude futures rising by $1.21 to reach $110 per barrel, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude increased over $1 to hit $99 per barrel. These fluctuations occurred amid a highly volatile trading session, influenced by renewed attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure in the Middle East. Market participants balanced these risks against positive signals indicating that crude exports from the Gulf are gradually recovering. Currently, Brent is trading nearly 80% higher than it was a year ago.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced that naval mines have halted three tankers passing through routes that Tehran considers unauthorized. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that one vessel was struck near Oman. Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield. Additionally, the group reported strikes on airports in Riyadh and Abha. These incidents have reignited worries over supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Throughout the day, oil prices experienced significant swings. Brent saw its gains diminish later in trading and dipped below $108 at one point. WTI briefly reached $100 before slipping below $98. Persistent record-high freight rates in the Persian Gulf continued to support prices. Over the past month, Brent has increased by about 8%, according to Trading Economics data. Oil prices also rebounded in late September after a four-session decline.
Gulf export flows counter supply concerns
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz are nearing levels seen before the conflict began. Data from Kpler and Vortexa tracking tanker movements showed an increase in Middle East crude exports since summer. Producers are boosting shuttle shipments via Hormuz and conducting ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports rose by 7.9% in August, reaching their highest point since March. These recovering flows helped restrain price gains during Wednesday’s trading session.
US inventory figures also played a role in market movements. The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude stocks declined by just over 3 million barrels last week. The American Petroleum Institute had previously reported a larger decrease of 4.9 million barrels. US weekly crude output was approximately 13.27 million barrels per day, down from 13.68 million the week prior. The decline in inventories suggests tighter supply conditions in the world’s leading oil-consuming nation.
Focus on Russian diesel exports and recent Saudi attacks
Russia is set to deliver its inaugural diesel shipment to the United States on Thursday, following an agreement between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Last week, Trump waived Russia sanctions under the Graham Act, paving the way for this transaction. Meanwhile, Ukraine has launched extensive drone strikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure, signaling Kyiv’s intent to prevent Moscow from expanding its diesel exports, according to Trading Economics.
On October 22, prices climbed again after a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field resulted in two fatalities. Brent exceeded $111 per barrel, while WTI moved above $99. The United States also ordered some personnel and family members to leave its embassies in Saudi Arabia. Traders continue to closely watch Gulf shipping activity, Saudi production levels, and Russian fuel flows to determine the next trend in oil prices.