NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market has now entered its fifth year as of Monday, following four years of steady gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has increased approximately 119% since its bear-market bottom on October 12, 2022. That session saw the index close at 3,577.03, marking its lowest finish since November 2020. By the end of the previous week, the index closed at 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% rise for 2026, with a weekly gain of 1.2%.
This cycle is the 11th bull market recorded since the 1950s in the historical data, and it is the seventh to have lasted at least four years. Its 119% growth lags behind the average gain of 184% observed across all studied bull markets. The 2009-to-2020 phase soared 401%, while the 1987-to-2000 period jumped 582%. These earlier periods remain among the most robust long-term gains in the comparison.
Historical performance during the fifth year of previous bull markets generally remained positive, though outcomes varied by cycle. Out of the past 10 bull markets, six extended beyond their fourth anniversary. When examining those that reached a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median of 15%. The same historical review indicates an average maximum drawdown of approximately 14% during fifth years. These figures are based on past market cycles and do not predict the current trend.
Corporate Earnings Support the Market’s Upward Trajectory
Earnings reports continue to be a key driver of the current market climb. FactSet reported that third-quarter S&P 500 earnings on October 9 were running 29.6% higher than the previous year. This marks the third quarter in a row with earnings growth exceeding 25%. By the end of September, estimates indicated a 29.2% growth. Among 19 index companies that have reported, 84% surpassed analysts’ average earnings estimates, with their combined earnings beating expectations by 4.9%.
Analysts anticipate continued strong profit growth through the end of 2026. Fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow by 27.6% year-over-year, and full-year earnings are expected to increase by 32.4%. Notably, semiconductor and hardware firms account for about 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates. Barclays research additionally shows these companies make up roughly 75% of the year-to-date revisions to 2027 estimates, underscoring technology-related sectors’ prominence in current earnings expectations.
Rising Interest Rates Mark the Fifth Year of the Market Rally
The ongoing rally occurs amid rising interest rates and elevated U.S. government bond yields. On September 16, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. Officials noted that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained persistent. The median projections from September point to 2026 economic growth at 2.3% and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 to October 28.
Long-term Treasury yields stay high as the stock market advances into its fifth year of gains. On October 9, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 5.24%, while the 30-year yield reached 5.60%. Despite the rising yields, the S&P 500 increased by 0.6% that day, closing at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.6%. U.S. equities are now entering their fifth year near record levels, supported by strong earnings growth and elevated borrowing costs.